Pick a handicap tier, a pin, and a wind state, then drag the aim point around the green complex. The model scores every spot you could stand over: your expected score, your odds of finding Rae's Creek, your odds of holding the green, and how many strokes that aim gives up against the model's best spot for that tier and pin.
Drag the clay marker on the map, or focus it and use the arrow keys. Every number below updates live.
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The model treats your carry as the aim depth. The hole plays 155 yards from the tee.
Negative is left, positive is right.
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Expected score at your aim
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Finds the water
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Short of the creek
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Hits the green
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Strokes vs. model's aim
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Your aimModel's aim
Dashed ellipse: your tier's 1σ dispersion oval at this aim, inflated when wind is on. Drag or use arrow keys to move the clay marker, or type the carry and left/right numbers above.
What is modeled here
Every anchored number traces back to a published source. These do not: they are built assumptions with a stated sensitivity range, carried through this sandbox exactly as the analysis uses them.
"Finds the water" counts a ball in the creek itself or on the mown bank that feeds a short mishit into it; "Short of the creek" counts a ball that lands in the fairway short of that band entirely, a pitch back over the water rather than a ball already in it. Both numbers come from the same dispersion oval, so a wider miss pattern raises one or the other, or both, depending on how far short the miss lands.
Handicap tiers 15 and 20 sit well outside the published GIR-by-distance anchor band for a 155-yard shot, so their dispersion ovals come from an extrapolation of the same formula the anchored tiers use, not a direct anchor. See analysis/003-augusta-12/data.py for the full anchor-by-anchor breakdown.
This sandbox recomputes every number in your browser from the exported grids. No server, no tracking.