Credit rules

  • Credit "Dogleg Data" and link doglegdata.com (the badge on the chart already does the naming if you keep it visible).
  • Keep the source line and any "modeled" labels on the image. They mark which numbers are published data and which are extrapolated, and cropping them changes the claim.
  • Want a number checked, a custom size, or a scramble read run through the model? Email sunny@doglegdata.com. Same-week turnaround.

Boilerplate

Dogleg Data tests golf's conventional wisdom against real data at every handicap, with every source cited and every modeled number labeled. Built by Sunny, a data analytics professional, it publishes the charts and the models behind them under one tagline: play the percentages.

Chart pack · How Far Do You Need to Hit It?

The citable stat: a 10-handicap on a 360-yard par 4 needs 230 yards off the tee to stay within a tenth of a stroke of a typical 10-handicap score, 28 yards under the tier's average drive. Benchmark modeled, calibrated to published Shot Scope aggregates; the label is on every image.

Chart 1: the cost line by par-4 length for seven handicap tiers, each below that tier's average drive

1 · The cost line

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Chart 2: expected strokes vs drive distance for 5 to 20 handicaps, flattening past the cost line

2 · The flat zone

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Chart 3: the cost of a shorter tee shot is the approach; a club change trades approach cost for accuracy

3 · Where the cost lives

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Chart 4: strokes lost hitting 3-wood instead of driver by tier and hole length, never more than 0.12

4 · What the 3-wood costs

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Chart 5: quote card, a 10-handicap on a 360-yard par 4 needs 230 yards off the tee

5 · The quote card

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Chart 6: the excess OB rate at which the 3-wood or hybrid beats the driver, by handicap

6 · The bailout threshold

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Chart pack · Fairway vs. Rough, by Handicap

Chart 1: how many yards the fairway is worth over the rough, by handicap, at a 150-yard approach

1 · The handicap break-even

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Chart 2: the fairway's worth for a 20-handicap at 150 yards by rough severity, with a real scramble decision

2 · Rough severity and the scramble call

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Chart 3: Monte Carlo greens-in-regulation simulation by handicap and lie

3 · Monte Carlo GIR simulation

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Chart 4: the realistic 10-yard scramble gap, fairway at 125 yards versus rough at 115

4 · The realistic 10-yard gap

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Chart 5: simulated landing patterns by handicap at a 150-yard approach

5 · Landing patterns by handicap

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The model behind the charts

Test your own numbers before you cite them

The interactive dashboard runs the same break-even, GIR, and scramble models these charts come from, source lines included.

Open the tools